[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high. Regions 3208 (N08W72, Dao/beta), 3213 (N29W44, Fki/beta-gamma), and 3220 (S14E58, Cso/beta) all produced low level M-class flares. The largest was an M2/1n at 11/0808 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 3213. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3208, 3214 (N12W26, Dko/beta), 3217 (S11E43, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), and 3222 (N29W72, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable.

Additional activity included a filament eruption centered near S22W34. This event was visible in SDO/AIA 304 and H-alpha imagery beginning ~10/0730 UTC. Subsequent imagery indicated a CME signature to the SW. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested most of the ejecta would pass south of Earth, but a glancing blow is possible around 15 Feb.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate to high (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance of isolated X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 11-13 Feb due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3208, 3213, and 3217.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak of 982 pfu observed at 11/0100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels over 11-13 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11-13 Feb due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3213 and 3217.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced over the period with solar wind speed ranging from 459-548 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-5 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind condition are likely to remain enhanced through the rest of the UTC day on 11 Feb and slowly diminishing on 12-13 Feb to near nominal levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under enhanced solar wind conditions.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected through 11 Feb followed by a return to mostly quiet conditions on 12-13 Feb.

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