[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a pair of M1 flares, one from old Region 3213 (N29, L=225) and the other from a region from beyond the NE limb. Region 3226 (N11W01, Dki/Beta-Delta) remained the largest, most complex AR on the visible solar disk as it grew in overall length while maintaining a weak Delta signature in its trailer spots. Region 3225 (S21W41, Cro/Beta) exhibited slight decay from the pervious reporting period, as it lost trailing spots. The remaining eight other ARs were either stable and quiet, or in decay.

There was a CME off the NW associated with a long duration C9 flare that peaked at 16/1059 from Region 3216 (N24W53, Hsx/alpha). An additional CME was noted off the south in C2 imagery beginning near 16/0400 UTC. The source region isnt clear for this eruption. Analysis and modeling are ongoing for both of these events at the time of this writing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to gradually decrease to mostly low levels over the course of 16 Feb while maintaining the chance for isolated M-class flare activity through 18 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 18 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were reflective of continued CME influence. Total field strength averaged near 10 nT in the first half of the period, then a further enhancement occurred causing an increase to 22 nT. The Bz component underwent sustained southward orientations and reached a maximum deflection of -19 nT late in the period. Solar wind speeds increased from ~325 km/s to near 450 km/s. Phi rotated from neutral to a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: An enhanced IMF is expected to continue into the early periods of 16 Feb before gradually beginning to wane. Late on 17 Feb, the IMF is expected to reflect the arrival of the 15 Feb CME mentioned above, bringing an enhanced state that will persist through 18 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels on 16 Feb. Late on 17 Feb, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence with the arrival of the aforementioned 15 Feb CME. Conditions are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) storm periods on 18 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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