[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Regions 3226 (N10W54, Cko/beta), 3229 (N26E12, Eki/beta), 3230 (S23E37, Hax/alpha), 3231 (N21W45, Cso/beta) all produced C-flare activity. The largest was a C7 at 20/0702 UTC from Region 3226. Slight growth was observed in Region 3231 and in the intermediate spots of Region 3229. Region 3226 continued to exhibit decay in its trailing spots.

The CME associated with a filament eruption in the SW quadrant beginning at 19/1624 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery was modelled and determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 20-22 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Feb. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (above S1-Minor) through 22 Feb due primarily to potential activity from Region 3229.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal most of the period with solar wind speed averaging around 365 km/s and total field near 6 nT. At 20/0952 UTC, a shock was observed at the DSCVR spacecraft indicating the arrival of the 17 Feb CME. Total field suddenly increased to 13 nT while solar wind speed increased to 433 km/s. The Bz component was initially positive. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are likely to continue on 20 Feb in response to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun 17 Feb. Waning CME conditions are expected over 21 Feb. 22 Feb will likely see the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 16 nT was observed at the WNG magnetometer at 20/1039 UTC associated with the 17 Feb CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with G1 (Minor) storm periods likely late on 20 Feb due to CME activity. Quiet to active levels are expected on 21 Feb as CME influence wanes. Unsettled to active conditions are again likely on 22 Feb due to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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