[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate due to an impulsive M4.4 flare (R1-Minor) event and an M4.7/SF flare at 21/1123 UTC. Nine sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk and X-ray background flux continued at low C-class levels. New Regions 3232 (N10W85, Hrx/alpha), 3233 (N14W07, Axx/alpha) and 3234 (N24E70, Dai/beta) were assigned. Region 3234 was moderately active as it was the source of the aforementioned M4.4 and M4.7 flares, however, the region was too foreshortened for an accurate analysis. Regions 3232 and 3233 were unimpressive. Region 3231 (N21W58, Dso/beta) underwent growth followed by some decay. Region 3229 (N26E13, Ekc/beta-delta) changed little, but the minor delta configuration weakened further. Region 3229 was the source of a few C-class flares. The remaining regions were little changed and mainly inactive.

There were three notable CMEs observed during the period. The first was off the NE limb and appears to be associated with a C1 flare from Region 3234, followed by an eruption off the NW limb that was associated with a filament eruption. An additional eruption was observed in STEREO A imagery off the SW limb. While initial analysis suggests none of these are likely to be Earth-directed, WSA/Enlil modeling is ongoing at the time of this summary.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of an X-class (R3; Strong) event 21-23 Feb due primarily to the elevated flare probabilities of Regions 3229 and 3234.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 21-23 Feb, with a chance for high levels on 23 Feb due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels with a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) storm all three days, due primarily to the slight risk of a solar energetic proton event.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of an anticipated CME from 17 Feb. Total IMF strength was elevated and reached a peak of 14 nT late in the period. The Bz component varied but reached a prolonged period of -10 to -11 nT late. Solar wind speed decreased from early speeds near 475 km/s to 400 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive sector.

Forecast: CME passage is expected to continue on 21 Feb. Later on 21 Feb, CIR arrival ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated. CH HSS onset is forecast to occur shortly afterwards. CH HSS influences are likely to continue on 22 Feb and begin weakening on 23 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels with ongoing CME influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods early on 21 Feb in response to varying CME effects. Combined CIR and CH HSS effects are likely to result in active conditions later in the day and into 22 Feb. There is a chance for a few isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels 21-22 Feb due to transient and CH HSS related effects. CH HSS effects are expected to weaken on 23 Feb and mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation