Hi Bob,
As you rightly said, there are many variables.
Rate is good, but it is NOT the bee all and end all of it. Don't forget the
mults! Some may come to you, but some won't, and you will have to go find
THEM.
If you were PJ7/K3MQ, then you probably COULD just sit and CQ for almost the
whole contest period.
However, as a W3, it would only be your State that may be "rare". How many
others in your State will be running? Worth checking!
With a single radio, you need to find the mults, maybe on your second VFO,
and work them in between your CQ's.
Alternatively, and you don't mention this, but if you were "assisted", then
you could use the cluster to help with the mult hunting. Also, taking
advantage of band-openings that aren't expected will help, but may well
affect your rate.
You also need to consider the "48", and see just how many of those you can
bag on as many bands as possible.
Some of the "rarer" States you will need to try and move to other bands,
just to ensure the mult. This all takes time, and will affect your rate.
And don't forget the Zones either! Some may be less obvious than others, but
you want as many as possible on each band. Again, may be worth trying to
move them if they come to you.
Check the NG3K website and note (or print) the list of rare DX that may be
about!
Your rate will also depend on your macros, so the shorter the better!
However, there is another trade-off in that if it is too short, you may get
asked for repeats. This can be especially confusing if - for example - you
live in an area where most software pre-defines you as Zone 4, but you are
in Zone 5.
Rates of around 70 - 90 would be reasonable for the busy hours, but you are
going to get rates of way below that at certain times. Even then, achieving
a rate of 70 - 90 per hour, every hour, is also very hard.
I have achieved rates of over 90, but not for very long. OK, I am not a loud
signal, but I am a good mult, and even so, such a rate tails off very
quickly. And that isn't even allowing for the W3MQ W3MQ W3MQ DE XX1XXX
XX1XXX XX1XXX UR RST 599 599 599 MY NAME IS......, MY QTH IS......, MY RIG
IS, MY LOC IS etc etc etc.
And then, at the end of the contest, when you work out an average, it is way
below that.
I am sure there are stations that achieve a constant rate of 90+, but that
would be the likes of HC8N, and a few others.
Like you said, there are so many variables. But, my advice would be not to
worry too much about the rate and concentrate on the mults.
Running a rate of 90+ consisting of mostly W's is not a good "rate".
Good luck with the station, and I will try and find you in the contest!
Very best 73
Phil GU0SUP
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