> JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
> SDF NUMBER 313 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 NOV 1998
> IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY TO 09/2100Z:
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N21W74) PRODUCED AN M1/1F
AT 08/2256Z. THIS REGION RETAINED ITS MIXED POLARITIES AND ITS AREAL
COVERAGE IN WHITE LIGHT WAS UNCHANGED.
Just means the area is magneticly complex (the mixed polarities meaning
both N and S magnetic fields present) and an area capable of producing
further activity.
> SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE
> SOHO CORONAGRAPH DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WERE FROM MODERATELY
> HIGH LATITUDES ON THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LIMBS.
Since these CME's were near the limb, they likely will NOT effect us.
And, isn't it nice to see SOHO back on line after it's near death
experience?
> IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
> THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0600-1200Z.
The solar wind increased to 700 km/sec and the density to about 35
protons/cm^3 ... high speed, high density being characteristics of the
shock wave of a CME. Furthermore, sudden shifts in the direction and
temperature this morning pushed the geomagnetic field into MAJOR storm
levels. This was a sudden onset about 0900UTC this morning, driving the
K-index into the 5-7 range all day. Todays planetary A-index average is
72 so far, or MAJOR storm levels. Things are subsiding now. Last
measured K-index was 4.
> SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED SEVERE STORMING DURING THAT TIME.
And auroral activity. Although no Polar Cap Absorption Event was
triggered by todays activity.
> IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
> AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 10 NOV. PERIODS OF MAJOR
> STORMING ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
> EXPECTED ON 11 NOV AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO
> UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON 12 NOV.
> IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
> OBSERVED 09 NOV 162 <---------- 10-15M have to be open
> PREDICTED 10 NOV-12 NOV 162/156/145
At least the flux is quite high, so try working the higher bands.
Remember, solar flux effects the higher bands and a geomagnetic storm
effects the lower bands. 20-30M gets caught in the crossroads.
> V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
> OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV 036/068 <------ MAJOR storm levels
> ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV 035/072 <------ ditto
> PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV 020/025-012/012-010/012
But, it's quietting down fast and 40M should be fairly usable tomorrow
nite.
72, Paul NA5N
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