I've been active on 160 since 1960 starting with a Heath AT-1 at 50 watts into
a 40 meter dipole with the feeders tied together. Cleveland from Chicago was
considered real DX! Starting in 1983, I began to chase real DX on 160 so I've
seen 33 DX seasons pass by so far.
My anecdotal experience is that spotlight propagation occurs more frequently
than we think and that, at times, the spotlight can be a pinpoint. For example,
with the FT4TA operation, some ops were reporting that the spotlight seemed to
have been as small as 20 miles and certainly 50 mile differences are very
common.
Also, there appears to be a pattern where some areas of the US get the
spotlights more often than others, primarily those locations in the southern
part of the US, although there are some northern locations that seem to be
favored too.
In the end, it is what it is. If you are not in the spotlight when that form of
propagation is occurring, it doesn't matter what you have for a receiving
antenna. You just are not going to hear the DX station. But as it has been
stated frequently here, if you snooze you lose. You just have to be stuck in
your chair for the duration waiting for that potential 15 second opening to
exchange calls and reports.
GLTA Dennis W0JX
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