The following was QSP'd to me by K6NDV who received it from the DX
reflector. I thought it might be of interest to Topbanders.
--------- Begin forwarded message ----------
Jim Reid, KH7M <jreid@aloha.net> wrote:
Aloha,
How can these Navy guys be so smart??
I have had a look at my ARRL Handbook, 1992 edition. On page
22-5, in the Propagation chapter, a graph is re-printed, and
attributed to the Naval Ocean Systems Center propagation
"prediction" made around 1985!
For this time within Cycle 23, the Navy chart shows a predicted
(smoothed?) sunspot number of only 50 to 60 for all of 1999,
and a max of about 80 in early 2000 !!!?? Today, the actual
reported sunspot number is standing at 51!! See URL:
http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/realtime.html
Further, the implication of the Navy statistical prediction is that
Cycle 23 will be very low, perhaps the lowest SS and flux
counts since before 1940!
Oh shucks, and as it drags along, I was hoping for a dramatic upturn!
The NOSC 1985 chart seems to show that even the next cycle,
peaking around 2011 or so will also be lower than any of the past
to 1940; and the 2023 or so peak will be just a bit better, maybe
the about equal of 1969.
Well, hope their statistical projections are inaccurate, but sure
seem on track so far into Cycle 23!
Anyone know how the Navy came up with their prediction?
73, Jim, KH7M
On the Garden Island of Kauai
--
FAQ on WWW: http://www.contesting.com/topband.html
Submissions: topband@contesting.com
Administrative requests: topband-REQUEST@contesting.com
Problems: owner-topband@contesting.com
|