Geez Henry.....after reading this, I mailed back my Extra ticket and jumped
off the nearest bridge!
>From: A9xw@cs.com
>To: wy6k@yahoo.com, TOWERTALK@contesting.com
>Subject: Re: [Towertalk] The Ham Radio Business
To: <towertalk@contesting.com>
>Date: Mon, 1 Apr 2002 15:24:44 EST
>
>With some 30 years experience in the biz of ham radio let me add 2 ents
>worth.
>1. Ham radio has been dying for over 30 years. Whether you believe Wayne
>Green is right blaming ARRL's incentive licensing or the internet or lack
>of
>promotion doesn't matter. Nearly 90% of all ham stores are closed, over
>90%
>of all ham manufacturers are out of business.
>2. There is almost no interest in ham radio by anyone out side of the
>hobby
>anywhere in the world. There are a flood of new "no code" G land hams
>similar to the flood of no-code hams here, but I predict that as here, most
>of them will not invest in more than a 2 meter HT and after a while lose
>interest as has happened here. For all the new hams there is still not a
>crowding on HF and less than a half dozen repeaters in Chicago have enough
>users to key it up to show life. in NYC there are nearly no repeater users
>except illegal unlicensed cab drivers using them for business speaking in
>arabic. League membership as a percentage of licensed hams is at historic
>low.
>3. If you take into account the 10 year lag between license renewals and a
>percentage for SK's that arenot yet reported as such, most are never
>reported
>until the 2 year renewal grace period is passed, you find that the
>"active"
>ham population is about 1/3 less than the stated "licensed" hams.
>4. Stores including the big names are all reporting sales are down 30-50%.
>AES tells me that walk in trade is nearly non-existant because hams shop
>the
>internet to get the lowest price or use the 800 numbers, and this has
>increased until 80% or more of all sales are phone or internet based. The
>few
>in store sales are "lookers" and tire kickers who buy little stuff but
>mostly
>buy the rigs via option 1-2. One manufacturer tells me sales are off 60%
>from three years ago and 80% from 10 years ago.
>5. There is little effort to get any substantial growth in either activity
>or new hams. the same old contests, sweepstakes, and OSCAR stuff has almost
>no interest to non hams and although I don't keep track of entries, I would
>like to know if the number of contest and award logs are going up or down.
>My
>guess is down.
>6. In conversations with the FCC over the decades, their usual comment
>about
>ham radio growth is, "If we handed out Extra class ham licenses on the
>corner
>for free, no one would take them." that is a direct quote from top FCC
>brass. there are many there that if it wern't for our emergency uses, would
>just as soon eliminate all ham radio and sell the spectrum to big
>commercial
>interests. Thats all spectrum, not just a UHF or SHF band or two as they
>are
>doing now. The "international goodwill" is of no value with all the
>mideast
>wars, terrorism, etc. If the bulk of hams were not over 60 and too old to
>do
>much more than sit and drink beer and fart on 40 meters, we could mount a
>good terrorism emergency plan that might be of interest to the non ham
>world
>and the Government, but I don't see anyone, let alone Newington leading the
>charge on that one either. just the ususal MARS, RACES and 2 meter HT
>repeaters. We can forget finding much new technology since the size of
>stuff
>today is too small for us to even see without a microscope or large lens,
>unless you can come up with a new math algorithm that makes some
>significant
>improvement in digital. the lab boys are way beyond all but a handful of
>hams in that area. Redesigning old 1 tube receivers and transmitters for
>"third world" countries is a waste of time since the hams there have to be
>rich enough just to get a license and station, and aren't about to build
>jungle radios. Even the drug lords buy all new gear for their cleandestine
>operations, not home brew or flea market stuff.
>7. If it weren't for the CB'ers buying ham gear to operate on 10, 11 and
>in
>between, at power levels to 25 KW, most of the HF gear sales would be 90%
>lower also.
>8. When those of us who are over 50 die, the ham population will be under
>125,000 and ARRL membership will be less than 15,000. new hams do not join
>ARRL. no code hams do not join ARRL. they also do not buy magazine
>subscriptions, or expensive gear, usually a 1-2 band HT, a mobile antenna
>and
>an amp if the repeater is more than a few miles away.
>
>73
>
>Henry AA9XW
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