A very interesting set of numbers George.
But I think we are talking apples and oranges. No one denies that prior to
the mid 1990's the trendline was up. And even if there were a significant
drop during the last 10 years of the last 25 it would likely be overwhelmed
by the rise in the the first 15 years. But I wonder what would happen if
you calculated a trend line from 1993 or 1996 to the present. That is the
time period I am talking about when I say activity is down and logs are
down. I also wonder what equation you are using for the trend line - least
squares fit, regression line of some sort or what?
Your smoothed sunspot numbers are NOT a mirror of decrease in VHF log
submissions. Prior to the mid 90's the trendline was up regardless of
smoothed sunspot number. Likewise during the past ~10 years even when there
has been superb conditions - big Es on 6 in June or a big tropo opening in
September - log entries are generally down year over year.
So to look at your 6 meter data again using the 'official' ARRL numbers
which I received prior to writing my April column
TR ARRL
#s #s
> 1995 837 837
> 1996 921 923 This year is high because the E-skip was really
really good.
> 1997 837 837 Es very poor
> 1998 800 865 This year the eskip and tropo were good
> 1999 701 701 Eskip was REALLY bad
> 2000 710 749 Eskip was better for some but overall bad. **Es was
really good in the East**
> 2001 880 680 Es was excellent.
2002 - 674 Es was good.
Note that really good Es years has little impact on the declining numbers.
Thus 1999 which was the worst Es year in my memory in the last 20 had 701
entries vs 865 in 1998, 749 in 2000 and only 680 in 2001 which was perhaps
the second best Es year after 1996.
Also note that between 50,000 and 100,000 HF/VHF/UHF radios have been sold
since the mid 90's. They did not exist before that time. So where are the
contacts from these radios?
If you look at September over the same period the results are even more
distressing
1995 695
> 1996 717
> 1997 753
> 1998 610
> 1999 606 Superb tropo in the Midwest
> 2000 582
> 2001 553 Best East coast tropo opening since 1979
2002 540
Regardless of conditions, the trendline is down from 1996 forward.
Finally we all owe you a vote of thanks for those neat graphs of logs vs.
time per contest - the first time I have seen the data graphed in one place.
But even here I think we have a case of apples and oranges.
Peak entry years were 1994 for January, 1996 for June and 1997 for
September. Since then the trend has been downward. I think most telling is
that the most populous contest - January - began declining before the
sunspot minimum. Given that activity in January is driven by club activity,
that is an ominous sign indeed. Especially since I think club activity has
been increasing - note that there are TWO big clubs in Texas now, NEWS did
not exist for all intents and purposes in the early 90's, numbers of club
members all throughout the West coast appears to me to be up [is this so? I
think so].
The Cabrillo robot could tell us if there were more unique calls in a given
contest IF the data existed for a long enough time and IF enought logs were
sent to the robot. I am afraid we won't be able to do this important
analysis for a few years until we have enough Cabrillo logs. But I agree
wholeheartedly - this is an important piece of data I wish we had.
So we are left with a dilemma. You are right George that there is no
absolute evidence that activity is really declining. Perhaps it is
dissatisfaction with the contest structures or some other matter. But
perhaps activity is really declining. The question is what do we do about
it. Do we wait and see if the numbers in September drop below 200 before we
restructure the contests and look to recruit some new blood or rejuvenate
the old blood? I don't know the answers. But I sure wouldn't want to lose
these contests.
73 Gene W3ZZ
----- Original Message -----
From: "George Fremin III" <geoiii@kkn.net>
To: "jon jones" <n0jk@hotmail.com>
Cc: <vhfcontesting@contesting.com>
Sent: Monday, April 07, 2003 12:00 AM
Subject: Re: [VHFcontesting] re. W3ZZ's QST contesting article (Tom Carney)
> On Mon, Apr 07, 2003 at 01:51:06AM +0000, jon jones wrote:
> > >"Based on the data
> > Gene presented, I don't doubt there has been a decline in
participation."
>
> I think there are several things going on with VHF log submissions.
>
> > too. I figured it was maybe due to the poor prop. in the last couple of
> > contests.
>
> I think poor propagation tends to reduce log submissions by the
> causal guy - who might only make a handful of contacts
> during poor conditons but I think there are other forces.
>
> Namely high sun spot activity.
>
> Since 1996 the sunspots have been on a steady increase.
>
> Here are the smoothed sunspot numbers:
>
> 1975 15.5
> 1976 12.6
> 1977 27.5
> 1978 92.5
> 1979 155.4
> 1980 154.6
> 1981 140.4
> 1982 115.9
> 1983 66.6
> 1984 45.9
> 1985 17.9
> 1986 13.4
> 1987 29.4
> 1988 100.2
> 1989 157.6
> 1990 142.6
> 1991 145.7
> 1992 94.3
> 1993 54.6
> 1994 29.9
> 1995 17.5
> 1996 8.6
> 1997 21.5
> 1998 64.3
> 1999 93.3
> 2000 119.6
> 2001 111.0
>
>
> This is almost an exact mirror of the decrease in VHF log submissions.
>
> K9AKS made a post to this list where he gave use the log submisson
numbers.
>
> You can find his entire post here:
>
http://lists.contesting.com/pipermail/vhfcontesting/2002-September/001029.ht
ml
>
> But let me pull a few things from it:
>
> Here are some numbers. First, the number of logs submitted for the
> three ARRL VHF/UHF contests since 1975 from QST write-ups (note a few of
> these numbers are estimates or interpolations, but the overall trends
> should be correct):
>
> Jan June Sept
> 1975 590 340 285
> 630 410 230
> 780 490 340
> 840 480 330
> 890 510 410
> 1980 995 500 380
> 970 540 390
> 940 590 448
> 950 510 436
> 800 590 450
> 1985 880 530 434
> 890 630 460
> 840 691 386
> 845 650 400
> 930 650 425
> 1990 910 600 439
> 912 480 415
> 958 610 591
> 1036 818 621
> 1200 820 714
> 1995 1150 837 720
> 1150 921 710
> 1020 837 752
> 1010 800 700
> 900 701 606
> 2000 820 710 582
> 799 680 553
>
> If you take this number and put them in a spreadsheet and graph
> them some we can see some very intresting things.
>
> Here is a graph of June contest log submissions compaired to the SSN:
>
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/june-ssn.gif
>
> I always do the june contest but being an active HF contester
> my January and September activty has only really happened
> at the bottom of the sunspot cycle - I suspect there
> or a few more like me out there.
>
>
> Next here are the graphs of log submissions over the years:
>
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/janvhf.gif
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/junevhf.gif
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/septvhf.gif
>
> The black liner line is a trendline - as you can see the
> trend going forward is positive - so I think it is still
> too early to say these contests are sick.
>
>
> In looking at the last few June contests you will note that
> the years with poor Eskip - log susbmissions are down.
> I think this is to be expected.
>
> 1995 837
> 1996 921 This year is high because the E-skip was really really good.
> 1997 837
> 1998 800 This year the eskip and tropo were good
> 1999 701 Eskip was bad
> 2000 710 Eskip was better for some but overall bad.
> 2001 880
>
> While I am always up for finding ways to get more folks on the radio
> and also to get them to send in logs, I do not think that we can
> yet say that these contests are on the decline.
>
> It would be intresting to look at the logs submitted to see
> how many unique callsigns show up each year in the stations worked.
> That might give us anohter gauge as to the health of the
> VHF contests and of VHF activity.
>
> As far as getting folks that do get on the radio to send in logs...
> well I am not sure what to do. Maybe if all of us talk all
> the locals into sending in their logs - that might be a good start.
>
> I know that here in Texas there is a VHF/UHF club that has
> a number of member who make contacts in all of the VHF contests
> but many or indeed most of them do not send in their logs.
>
> Maybe it is too much trouble or maybe they just dont care to
> send in a log. I must admit that I fall into this catagory
> often in contests where I only get on for a few hours. This is
> a habit that I have been trying to change in myself.
>
> --
> George Fremin III - K5TR
> geoiii@kkn.net
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr
>
>
>
>
> --
> George Fremin III - K5TR
> geoiii@kkn.net
> http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr
>
>
>
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