On Mon, Apr 07, 2003 at 07:18:00PM -0400, Eugene Zimmerman wrote:
>
> But I think we are talking apples and oranges. No one denies that prior to
> the mid 1990's the trendline was up. And even if there were a significant
> drop during the last 10 years of the last 25 it would likely be overwhelmed
> by the rise in the the first 15 years.
That might be true - in my quick glance at the numbers
it would apper that the biggest gains were in the 1992-1995
time period for all three contests.
I wonder why?
But I wonder what would happen if
> you calculated a trend line from 1993 or 1996 to the present. That is the
> time period I am talking about when I say activity is down and logs are
It is clear that from about 1998 there has been a decline.
The years from 1993 to 1998 do not show a huge change - something
around 100 entries for each contest.
> down. I also wonder what equation you are using for the trend line - least
> squares fit, regression line of some sort or what?
I dont have a clue - and I will admit it - just the trendline function
in excel - so it might be best to discount anything I have to say
on "trendlines".
>
> Your smoothed sunspot numbers are NOT a mirror of decrease in VHF log
> submissions. Prior to the mid 90's the trendline was up regardless of
> smoothed sunspot number. Likewise during the past ~10 years even when there
> has been superb conditions - big Es on 6 in June or a big tropo opening in
> September - log entries are generally down year over year.
What I am saying is that over the last two sunspot peaks we have
seen a decline in log submissions in the VHF contests.
Am I not matching up the dip in log sumissions with the rise in SSN
to the correct years?
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/june-ssn.gif
>
> So to look at your 6 meter data again using the 'official' ARRL numbers
> which I received prior to writing my April column
The numbers that I used were gathered by me by looking them up in
the June ARRL Contest reports as published in QST. So I would consider
them to be "official".
Indeed except for the 2001 number our two sets of numbers are quite close.
It appears that I have a typo in my 2001 numbers.
>
> TR ARRL
> #s #s
> > 1995 837 837
> > 1996 921 923 This year is high because the E-skip was really
> really good.
> > 1997 837 837 Es very poor
> > 1998 800 865 This year the eskip and tropo were good
> > 1999 701 701 Eskip was REALLY bad
> > 2000 710 749 Eskip was better for some but overall bad. **Es was
> really good in the East**
> > 2001 880 680 Es was excellent.
> 2002 - 674 Es was good.
>
For us here in Texas the Es have been very poor over the last three years.
But then poor might be slightly diffrent since I am used to making
more than 1000 contacts on 6 meters these days.
> Note that really good Es years has little impact on the declining numbers.
> Thus 1999 which was the worst Es year in my memory in the last 20 had 701
> entries vs 865 in 1998, 749 in 2000 and only 680 in 2001 which was perhaps
> the second best Es year after 1996.
Yep - log sumissions ahve not been really off until 2001.
I still say sunspots might have something to do with it - solar
conditons were pretty good on the HF bands in 2001.
>
> Also note that between 50,000 and 100,000 HF/VHF/UHF radios have been sold
> since the mid 90's. They did not exist before that time. So where are the
> contacts from these radios?
I dont know - Are all of these radios on the HF bands?
Speaking of that - how do log submissions in other ARRL contests compaire to
the VHF ones?
> If you look at September over the same period the results are even more
> distressing
>
> 1995 695
> > 1996 717
> > 1997 753
> > 1998 610
> > 1999 606 Superb tropo in the Midwest
> > 2000 582
> > 2001 553 Best East coast tropo opening since 1979
> 2002 540
>
> Regardless of conditions, the trendline is down from 1996 forward.
It was up in 1997 but yes you are correct.
> Peak entry years were 1994 for January, 1996 for June and 1997 for
> September. Since then the trend has been downward. I think most telling is
> that the most populous contest - January - began declining before the
> sunspot minimum.
I am not sure I am following you here.
I think the sunspot minimum was in 1996. Jan 1997 would have also been near the
bottom.
Theses are the two years when log submissions peaked for the January contest.
> Given that activity in January is driven by club activity,
> that is an ominous sign indeed. Especially since I think club activity has
> been increasing - note that there are TWO big clubs in Texas now,
I am not sure what two clubs you are talking about but I do not know
of any contest clubs in Texas that are pushing contesting or submitting
scores for the club compition in the ARRL VHF contests.
--
George Fremin III - K5TR
geoiii@kkn.net
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr
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