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[Propagation] Coronal Mass Ejection detected: Major GeomagneticStorm Pre

To: propagation <propagation@contesting.com>,"PropNET-Online@yahoogroups.com" <PropNET-Online@yahoogroups.com>,VHF <vhf@w6yx.stanford.edu>
Subject: [Propagation] Coronal Mass Ejection detected: Major GeomagneticStorm Predicted
From: "NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@hfradio.org>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 00:46:42 -0800
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
NW7US Propagation Update (15 January 2005 0840 UTC)

During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15 January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed. This indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed directly toward Earth). The start time of this Type II burst was 0554 UTC 15 January 2005. The shock speed is estimated at 1300 km/s - this is a MAJOR SHOCK. An extremely strong Type IV event followed the Type II event. The sweep looks optically correlated with the flare from region 0720. (To see the sweep, browse to

http://prop.hfradio.org/ips_type2event-20050115.gif (IPS))

The way this is shaped (PARALLEL RIBBON), a proton event is indicated that may begin in coming hours. Energetic solar proton events adversely impact tran-polar HF propagation circuits. This level of event may well span into middle latitudes.

It is now expected that the start of January 16 will see strong geomagnetic storminess, increasing to MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC storminess, then declining late on January 17 to active levels. This could well be a major Aurora event, as well. *STRONGLY DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED* from 16 January through 17 January 2005.

Additional details will be reported when available.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
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