RE: [Propagation] SIDC Daily Solar & Geo ReportHi Art,
Sorry for the late response. Sometimes my email SPAM program sends allowable
emails to the discard box instead of the in box.
I operate allot of 40 meters myself mostly on the digital modes. As the
geomagnetic storm ended that would have allowed higher latitude propagation
paths to open back up on 40 meters.
Check out this propagation check list against the data contained in the SIDC
daily bulletin.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop.
Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere for F layer HF frequency
refractions, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order
of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number
and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray
flux. See #7 below.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively
for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high
latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF
RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A 0 (zero) or better (positive number) Dst index as related to the
Equatorial Ring Current.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF, Moderator
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Kuhns, Arthur G CA
To: 'Thomas Giella KN4LF'
Sent: Friday, October 15, 2004 11:00 AM
Subject: RE: [Propagation] SIDC Daily Solar & Geo Report
Tom, Does this mean that the air waves on 40 meter will become more quite
less QRM?
Art
Arthur Kuhns
Calif. Army National Guard
Repairs and Utilities Supply
Camp Robert, CA. 93451
Commercial Phone: 805-238-8880
Email: arthur.kuhns@ca.ngb.army.mil
-----Original Message-----
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF [mailto:kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com]
Sent: Friday, October 15, 2004 7:45 AM
To: ABDX MF e-List; a Propagation Reflector; a HCDX Prop Channel
Subject: [Propagation] SIDC Daily Solar & Geo Report
:Issued: 2004 Oct 15 1228 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41015
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Oct 2004, 1222UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Oct 2004 until 17 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 009
COMMENT: Flaring activity is low, the only active region which has the
possibility for C-flares is sunspot group 39 (NOAA 0682). Solar wind speed is
declining, we are definitely leaving the influence sphere of the coronal
hole.
We are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 032
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 091
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 038
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 028
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
END
BT
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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