[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated
the day's largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated
Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 
734(S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at
1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently
visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and
unimpressive.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 116
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/008-005/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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