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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 18 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels as Region 2297 (S17W70, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)) produced an M1/2n flare at 17/2334 UTC, along with an associated Type II radio emission. A narrow CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southwest quadrant at 18/0027 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed estimate of 300 km/s. Region 2297 also produced a handful of C-class flares during the period. While it showed signs of decay, it still retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Two regions, 2302 (N10W72, Cai/beta-gamma) and 2303 (N19#58, Hax/alpha) were numbered, and 2302 was responsible for a C9/Sf flare at 18/0751 UTC.
Forecast: A chance remains for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares from Region 2297, diminishing to a slight chance on day 3 (20 Mar). A slight chance exists for an X-class flare from this region through day 2 (19 Mar). If Region 2302 continues to grow, it may keep the M-flare probabilities up through day 3 (20 Mar).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced following a near event earlier this week, however flux values ended the period at less than 1 pfu.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (18-20 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels remain likely to exceed the 10 pfu event threshold for days one and two (18-19 Mar), in the event of another energetic CME from Region 2297. This is based on the source location and previous activity from the region. Once the region is beyond the West limb of the visible disk, the likelihood of an radiation storm will diminish for day three (20 Mar).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: CME characteristics were evident in the solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft early in the period. Bz was southward, at times dipping to the -25 to -30 nT range, for most of the 17th. Bt began near 36 nT.
Phi began in a positive orientation and slowly rotated back to a negative orientation by 18/0000 UTC. The southward magnitude of Bz relaxed to -5 nT between 17/2300-18/0000 UTC as Bt continued to decline, ending near 12 nT. Wind speed began in the low to mid 600 km/s range early, ending in the mid-500 km/s range.
Forecast: The solar wind environment at ACE is expected to continue to recover from the CME impact over the remainder of 18 Mar. More disturbed conditions are possible during the forecast period in response to a negative polarity south polar coronal hole extension.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began at severe (G4) levels which persisted through 18 UTC. A strong (G3) storm was observed for the 18-21 UTC period, followed by severe (G4) levels through the end of the day. The recovery phase of the storm was reflected in steadily decreasing geomagnetic storm scales on the 18th - G2 (moderate) through 18/03 UTC, G1 (minor) through 18/06 UTC, and again between 09-12 UTC.
Forecast: Generally unsettled to active conditions are expected through the forecast period (18-20 Mar) in response to waning CME effects and the presence of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream. A chance remains through the period for G1 (minor) storm episodes.
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