[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with C-flare activity from both Regions 2303 (N18, L=065) and 2305 (S10W43, Dho/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C4 at 30/0152 from Region 2303 just beyond the NW limb. Slight decay was observed in the leading spots of Region 2315 (S20W36, Dro/beta) and the trailing spots in Region 2305. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare for days one and two (30-31 Mar). An increase in activity is expected by day three (01 Apr) due to the return of old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196). Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares by day three.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 157 pfu observed at 29/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (30-31 Mar and 01 Apr) with a chance for high levels on 31 Mar and 01 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels. Total field decreased from 9 nT to 5 nT with the Bz component mostly southward between +4 nT and -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector. Solar wind speed ranged from 329 km/s to 403 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to be enhanced beginning late on day one and continuing through the forecast period (30-31 Mar and 01 Apr) as a negative polarity extension CH HSS off the southern crown becomes geoeffective. Solar wind speeds ranging from 600-700 km/s range are possible based on recurrent data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day one (30 Mar). By late on day one through day two (30-31 Mar), unsettled to active periods are expected with minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely as a southern polar CH HSS extension becomes geoeffective. Quiet to active levels are expected day three (01 Apr) as CH HSS activity slowly wanes.

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