[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: An impulsive C1/1f flare at 28/0519 UTC from Region 2331 (S09W79, Dao/beta) brought solar activity to low levels. An 18 degree filament, centered near N07E54, erupted between 28/03-04 UTC and was observed in both GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA imagery. A 15 degree filament disappearance, centered near N14E27, was observed by Learmonth solar observatory between 28/06-09 UTC. At this time, no coronagraph imagery is available to determine if either event has a geoeffective component. WSA-Enlil model output of a CME observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery off the southwest limb on 26 Apr indicated a small chance for a glancing blow late on 30 April.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low over the next three days (28-30 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at low to moderate levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near-background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next three days (28-30 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was benign. Wind speed remained in the low-to-mid 300 km/s range. Phi was mostly negative. Bt was at or below 7 nT and Bz remained at or above 6 nT. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (28-30 Apr) with a minor perturbation possible on day two (29 Apr) ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under the benign solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels on day one (28 Apr). Quiet to unsettled levels become likely on days two and three (29-30 Apr) in response to the anticipated CH HSS described above.

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