[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 29 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2356 (S15E51, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and quiet during the period.

An eruptive prominence from the NW limb, centered near N50, was observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery. Much of the ejecta appeared to escape the Sun but did not seem to be on a Sun-Earth line. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was first seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 28/2312 UTC and close analysis of all available imagery, showed the CME probably originated from just beyond the NW limb and likely not geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with an increasing chance for C-class activity over the next three days (29-31 May) due to the return of old region 2339 (N13, L=129) on or about 30 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at predominately normal levels for day one (29 May), with moderate levels likely on days two and three (30-31 May) due to elevated solar winds from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels during the period as solar wind speeds were fairly steady and ranged primarily between 340-410 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was mostly steady and ranged between 3 nT to near 10 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between north and south orientations with maximum southward deflections of about -8 nT. Phi angle was primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) sector with a few, short negative deviations between 28/1900-29/0200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on days one and two (29-30 May) as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. By day three (31 May) a return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected as the CH HSS rotates away from a Sun-Earth connection.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 May) due to CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet levels is expected by day three (31 May) as the CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position.

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