[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2371 (N13E21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced all of the flare activity including the largest event of the period, a M1/1f at 20/0648 UTC. The other spotted region on the visible disk, Region 2367 (S20W41, Eki/beta-gamma) showed slight decay and was quiet for the period.

A partial-halo CME associated with an eruption in the SSE quadrant was first observed near 19/0845 UTC in coronagraph imagery. The WSA-Enlil model suggests a glancing blow early on 23 Jun. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected on available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with M-class flare activity likely for days one-three (20-22 Jun) due to the flare potential from Regions 2371 and 2367.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,060 pfu at 19/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is still slightly enhanced from the proton event on 18 June. The max flux for the period was 5 pfu at 19/1240 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels for days one-three (20-22 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced on days one through three (20-22 Jun) with a chance for an increase to S1-Minor solar radiation storm levels due to flare potential as well as a possible enhancement with the arrival of the 18 Jun CME.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at near ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds generally decreased from 360 km/s to near 310 km/s at periods end. Total magnetic field strength averaged between 4-5 nT. The Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deviation of -2 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near ambient conditions on days one and two (20-21 Jun). A glancing blow from a CME that erupted on 18 June is expected to cause disruptions in the solar wind environment early on day three (22 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (20-21 Jun) with isolated unsettled periods possible late on 21 Jun. G1-Minor storm conditions are likely on day three (22 Jun) due to a glancing blow from the 18 Jun CME.

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