[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Old Region 2371 (N13, L=302) produced a C2 flare at 29/0036 UTC, the largest event of the period. Region 2373 (N15E61, Eao/beta) produced a few C1 flares during the period. Region 2373 underwent slight growth this period as it continues to rotate onto the disk. New Region 2375 (S10E75, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for the remainder of day one (29 Jun) as Region 2371 continues its transit around the west limb. By days two and three (30 Jun-01 Jul), activity is expected to be at low levels.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 6,994 pfu observed at 28/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated this period, but remained below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over the next three days (29 Jun-01 Jul). There remains a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for the remainder of day one (29 Jun) due to the flare potential of old Region 2371 coupled with existing elevated proton flux levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to near-background levels for days two and three (30 Jun-01 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to an ambient solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds were variable between about 400 to 450 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady between 4-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was variable throughout the period between positive (away) and negative (towards) solar sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (29 Jun-01 Jul) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (29 Jun) and mostly quiet on days two and three (30 Jun-01 Jul).

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