[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was produced by Region 2373 (N16E46, Cso/beta), a C2/1f at 29/1807 UTC. Region 2373 was split into two separate regions with the eastern portion renumbered 2376 (N13E63, Eao/beta). Little change was noted in either of these regions over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (30 Jun - 02 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 7,557 pfu observed at 29/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced this period, but remained below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over the next three days (30 Jun - 02 Jul). 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend down to near-background levels over days one through three (30 Jun - 02 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were variable between about 380 to 425 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged between 1-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for day one (30 Jun). A minor enhancement may be reflected from the influence of a small positive polarity coronal hole on day two (01 Jul). Day three (02 Jul) is expected to see a nominal solar wind.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through three (30 Jun - 02 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole on day two (01 Jul).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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