[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2403 (S14E30, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an M/1f flare at 21/0218 UTC and a slightly larger subsequent M1/2b flare at 21/0948 UTC with an associated type II and type IV radio sweep. The region continued to develop, showing both consolidating and growth in both the leader and trailer spot. Region 2401 (S11W50, Hrx/alpha) decayed rapidly through the period. Region 2404 (N14E18, Axx/alpha) remained mostly simple and inactive with slight decay over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity during the period (21-23 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 8,392 pfu at 20/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with a chance for very high levels, over the next three days (21-23 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, exhibited slightly enhanced total field, wind velocity, and temperature at the beginning of the period suggesting the weak influence of a positive polarity coronal hole. As the period progressed, total magnetic field decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT and winds slowed from around 500 km/s to near 460 km/s. Bz remained prominently oriented northward. Phi remained mostly positive (away) for the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly disturbed on days one and two (21 - 22 Aug) as the positive polarity CH in the north remains in a potentially geoeffective position. Early on day three (23 Aug), a recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity CH is expected to further influence the solar wind environment, enhancing the wind speed, total magnetic field, temperature, and density.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions during the 20/1200-1500 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 - 22 Aug) as the positive polarity CH in the north continues to keep the geomagnetic field slightly disturbed. Early on day three (23 Aug), the equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective, further enhancing the geomagnetic field to active levels with minor (G1-Minor) storm levels likely.

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