[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 May 23 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 May 23 0201 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 May 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 16,18, and 20 May, and high levels on 19 May, due to M-flare activity. Region 3017 (N14, L=084, class/area=Cro/40 on 22 May) produced an M2/Sf flare at 16/1327 UTC and an M5/1f flare at 19/0719 UTC. Region 3014 (N24, L=105, class/area=Dkc/1190 on 20 May) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk this period, and produced four M-flares; an M1/Sf flare at 18/2202 UTC, an M1/1n flare at 19/1009 UTC, an M1/Sf flare at 19/1516 UTC, and an M3/1b flare at 20/0745 UTC. Solar activity was at low levels over 21-22 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 16-17 May due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed over 18-19 May following CH HSS influences. Additional positive polarity CH HSS influences were observed over 20-22 May with quiet to active conditions measured in response on 20 and 22 May. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 21 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 May - 18 June 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 26 May-11 Jun, and high levels on 23-25 May and 12-18 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels in response to multiple recurrent CH HSSs on 11, 13, 16, and 18 Jun. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

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