[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an impulsive M1/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 16/0629 UTC from Region 3057 (S15W10, Cki/beta). This region exhibited some trailer spot and overall area growth. C-class activity was also observed in Regions 3056 (S17W10, Eki/beta) and 3058 (N14E48, Dao/beta). No significant changes were observed in Region 3056 while some overall area decay was observed in Region 3058. The remaining regions were mostly unchanged and quiet. New Region 3860 (N10E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered.

Other activity included an approximate 37 degree long, E/W oriented filament, centered near N31W05, that erupted beginning after 15/1308 UTC. Most of the ejecta was reabsorbed but a subsequent partial-halo CME signature was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 15/1548 UTC. Analysis and initial model output of this slow CME suggested possible Earth impact on 20-21 Jul.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through 18 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 16/1025 UTC.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 18 Jul as Regions 3053 and 3055 approach the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a slightly enhanced environment. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-8 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds mostly ranged from 550-585 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be marginally enhanced though 18 Jul with minor disturbance anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast through 18 Jul with isolated, minor disturbances anticipated.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation