Hello, Jacob,
Regarding your total solar eclipse on 26 Feb, the largest the Moon's
shadow can ever be on the Earth's ionosphere is only about 170 miles (274
km) in diameter, so it's doubtful that any noticeable effect on 160m
propagation will occur. Also, the Moon's shadow will be so rapidly
moving that it will hardly give the ionosphere time to "cool off" for the
few minutes that it is at any given location.
If any ionospheric refraction can occur on 160m during the eclipse, it
won't necessarily be during totality at your QTH, because at that time
the shadow will be rather high in the sky for you, so "skip" distance
would be rather short.
My guess is that the Moon's shadow on the ionosphere will be above your
horizon while it is within 500 miles (805 km) of Aruba (depending on the
height of the ionosphere, which is supposed to be lower during daytime),
arriving from the WSW and leaving to the ENE. I estimate this gives you
a "window" of about 30 minutes of possible propagation time -- 15 minutes
before until 15 minutes after totality at your QTH. (You gave 1611Z as
the time -- is that the time of totality, or when partial begins?)
I would hate for your eyes to miss a once-in-a-lifetime experience. It
is said that only one in a million persons will see a total solar eclipse
in his/her lifetime. So, rather than attempt to QSO at that time, it
might be better to set up your memory keyer to operate your transmitter
as a "beacon" during the period of interest, and enjoy watching the
eclipse.
This skeptic will listen for you, and I hope others will. It should be
an interesting experiment.
73, de Earl, K6SE
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