Just in time for IARU!
73, Bill W4ZV
>From: Cary Oler <oler@solar.spacew.com>
>Subject: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH is Active
>To: sun-earth@SkyandTelescope.com
>=================================================================
>This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
>=================================================================
>
> A s t r o A l e r t
> Sun-Earth Alert
>
> Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> http://www.spacew.com
>
> 11 July 2003
>
>MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORA WATCH
>
> The "northern lights" may become sporadically visible over middle
>latitude regions of North America and Europe tonight. Effects of a well
>placed solar coronal hole have resulted in increasing solar wind velocities
>in space that are supporting the development of occasional auroral substorms.
>
> A middle latitude aurora watch has been issued and is valid through
>tonight and tommorrow. Details follow below.
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
>
> WATCH ISSUED: 06:05 UTC, 11 JULY 2003
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>
>VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
>VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 12 JULY
>
>HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 JULY (UTC DAYS)
>MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 JULY - 12 JULY
>
>PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 25, 20, 15 (11 JULY - 14 JULY)
>
>POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
>
>POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = VARIABLE
> MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
>
>ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
>EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
>
>OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
>
>AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
> MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
> STATE TO MAINE.
>
>
>ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN
> GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY LATVIA AND
> ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
>
> NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE
> PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
>
>SYNOPSIS...
>
> A strong and sustained southward turning over the IMF has been observed
>over the last 10 hours that has resulted in periods of destabilized higher
>latitude auroral activity. Low solar wind velocities are minimizing the
>impact of these favorable solar magnetic fields. However, a higher velocity
>solar wind stream is expected to begin influencing the Earth over the next 24
>hours. If the fields remain southward, the strengthening solar wind velocity
>could promote the production of periods of moderately strong auroral
>substorming over the next 12 to 24 hours. As a result, a middle latitude
>auroral activity watch has been issued.
>
>UPDATE: The high velocity solar wind stream from the anticipated coronal hole
>disturbance are being observed now. Auroral activity has become sporadically
>strengthened. Some equatorward migration of the auroral oval has also been
>observed that may help promote middle latitude sightings.
>
> This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
>12 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
>information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
>plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
>
> PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
>
>
>** End of Watch **
>
>
>
>** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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