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[CQ-Contest] cluster spot analysis

To: "reflector cq-contest" <CQ-Contest@Contesting.COM>
Subject: [CQ-Contest] cluster spot analysis
From: "David Robbins K1TTT" <k1ttt@arrl.net>
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2003 21:19:53 -0000
List-post: <mailto:cq-contest@contesting.com>
You can prove anything with statistics...  

Here are the over all top spot getters from all sources for the weekend:

DX              Count
C5Z             491
A61AJ           387
PJ2T            347
VP5B            312
TI5N            309
PZ5A            274
VB2C            250
V26B            250
WP2Z            238
CT9L            237
YV4A            231
HC8N            226
FY5KE           219
D4B             218
HB0/HB9AON      213

Pretty much what might be expected.  The rare operations like C5, A61
come out on top, rare zones like vb2c with full time operation are up
there, Caribbean area and hc8n get lots of spots from stateside if they
are on a lot, etc.

Now consider this comparison showing the count of 'single spotter'
spots.  

These 15 stations got the most spots from people who only made one spot
in the whole contest.  there were 1583 spots that fell into this
catagory out of 38355 i logged in the contest.  These were for 338
different dx stations.  So the average dx station that got spotted by
the 'single spotters' was spotted 4.6 times. This list includes all the
stations that got 10 or more 'single spotter' spots.  The count of
single spots from all sources is what is in the first column below.

The second column shows the number of those spots that were input from
dxsummit.

The third column shows the total spots for each station from all
spotters(the list above).

                single  single  total
DX              World           DXS             world
BY6HY           60              48              83
JT1BV           60              56              94
EA7FTR  33              32              48
A61AJ           27              6               387
RK3MWD  23              23              46
AN7MPM  22              3               89
C5Z             21              7               491
EA1AKS  18              18              33
TM5CRO  17              8               75
SY8A            16              5               115
HB0/HB9AON      11              1               213
CE0Y/SP9PT      11              3               54
RA9JR           11              11              26
VB2C            10              2               250
CT9L            10              3               237

Lots of interesting things here.  Lets take A61AJ and C5Z, the world's
most spotted stations in the contest.  They got somewhere around 5% of
their spots from 'single spotters'.  And of those single spots 33% or
less came from DXSummit.  Now, pick a few others.  BY6HY and JT1BV got
around 2/3's of their spots from stations who didn't spot anyone else in
the whole contest, and 90% or more of those came from DXSummit.  Similar
results apply to ea7ftr, rk3mwd, ea1aks, and ra9jr... which coincidently
if you look at my last message with analysis of ip addresses from
dxsummit, all show up in that list.  

Now, where did an7mpm come from???  they were mostly psk spots, a
relatively low activity mode, non-contest, and special call all combined
to attract some attention, but note, even with a large number of single
spotter spots only a small percentage of them come from dxsummit.
Likewise tm5cro was mostly vhf and iota spots outside the contest.  In
the contest sy8a attracted a fair number of spots as a rare country, as
did the hb0, ce0y, and ct9l, vb2c was in zone 2.  note that all of them
had relatively low percentages of dxsummit single spotters.

One very interesting conclusion from this is that i did not detect any
big new suspects from the cluster data.  Maybe this is a sign that word
is getting around about cheating by spotting yourself on cluster nodes
and all the activity is now on dxsummit.  If this is right then what i
am doing would seem to be working and we just have to keep spreading the
word that dxsummit is no longer a safe haven.  Of course it could be
that the cheaters are getting smarter and found ways to avoid detection,
but somehow I doubt that.


David Robbins K1TTT
e-mail: mailto:k1ttt@arrl.net
web: http://www.k1ttt.net
AR-Cluster node: 145.69MHz or telnet://dxc.k1ttt.net
 



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