Here is my updated predictions for the CQ WW CW contest
weekend (29-XI-2003 UTC and 30-XI-2003 UTC):
The solar activity that took us by surprise during the
end of October and beginning of November 2003 has me
revising my outlook for the CQ WW CW contest period of
November 29 and 30. I am now expecting conditions to
be slightly degraded compared to the forecast conditions
published in the CQ Magazine. ( See my latest
"Last Minute Forecast" chart at http://prop.hfradio.org/ )
Using the 27-day solar cycle as a guide, we are looking at
Above Normal on day one, to High Normal conditions on day
two of the contest weekend. Low- and mid-latitude paths
will be good, while high-latitude and polar paths will be
fair.
The predictions right now call for the planetary A index
(Ap) to be 10 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003, and 15 on
29-XI-2003. (Some predictions called for the Ap to remain
at 15 for both contest days, making day one only
High-normal conditions). The 10.7-cm Flux is predicted to
be at least 165 to 180 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003. On
30-XI-2003, the flux is expected to fall to about 160. A
maximum planetary K index (Kp) of 3 is expected for both
days.
Polar geomagnetic forecasts are calling for unsettled
conditions for trans-polar and high-latitude propagation
paths. This will make over-the-pole contacts more
challenging.
Will solar flares play havouc on the bands during the
daylight hours during the contest? The sunspot regions,
507 and 508, pose the most risk for flare activity. Both
have beta-gamma magnetic configurations. Old sunspot
region 498 is expected to return from around the sun on
day one, but will still be on the very edge. It is
predicted to have a beta configuration, so 498's flare
risk is low.
A note about magnetic configurations of sunspot groups:
Sunspots classed as "beta" groups are simple bipolar
regions. "Beta-gamma" sunspot groups are more complex and
consist of an irregular mixture of magnetic polarities.
The "delta" magnetic configuration only occurs when two
closely-spaced, opposite polarity umbrae appear within a
single penumbra. This characteristic implies that magnetic
field gradients are high and that respectable levels of
magnetic shear may exist around the two opposite polarity
umbral spots. Sunspot regions that possess the "delta"
configuration are the most potentially volatile and
flare-prone active regions. Some of the most powerful
solar flares in recorded history (including the rare
white-light flares) have issued forth from complex sunspot
regions containing magnetic delta configurations.
The most complex magnetic configurations of sunspot groups
is known as a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
( More information:
http://sidc.oma.be/edu/classification.html ) I expect that
there will be minor flare activity from these regions
over the contest weekend. This will impact the highest
bands (10 to 15 meters).
Therefore, I expect that the higher bands will be poor
to good, depending on the path: Trans-equitorial paths
(N/S) will be the best, while polar paths will be the
worst. The middle HF bands will be good over most paths.
The low HF bands and the MW band will fair nicely, since
the backgound X-ray levels are expected to be in the
B-class range, and very little geomagnetic activity is
expected.
Those operating in low-latitudes will have the best
propagation into most areas of the world. All stations
will have a slight challenge for any over-the-pole
paths. Mid-latitude stations should otherwise have
good conditions, while high-latitude stations will have
fewer higher frequency openings.
I'll be watching things closely, and will update my
predictions if warrented. You can find the latest
version at http://prop.hfradio.org/
Happy DXing!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
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