Issued: 2004 Sep 12 1210 UTC
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40912
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Sep 2004, 1201 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 12 Sep 2004 until 14 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Just after midnight on September 12, two M-flares occurred classified
by the Solar Soft Events List: an M5.0 peaking at 00:57 UTC and an M3.3 peaking
at
01:39 UTC. In the SXI-movie (EIT images are not available because of the
CCD-bakeout) we can see clearly that the long duration event with M5.0 peak
originates from sunspot group 12 (NOAA 0672) while there is also a shorter
contribution from the west (the M3.3-flare) from sunspot group 06 (NOAA 0667).
LASCO images are not yet available. Sec reported however a type II outburst, a
signature for a CME. The solar wind speed is low, the north-south component
fluctuates between -5nT and +4nT. Izmiran is measuring local K-indices of 2.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 114
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Observations:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Plant City, FL APRS/CWOP Weather Station #CW2111:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLPLANT4
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