Right now, at this QTH, 10 meters is showing 46 mults and 106 new stations
spotted in the last 30 minutes. Not bad for this part of the cycle, I'd say.
73, Pete N4ZR
At 10:02 AM 10/30/2004, Thomas Giella KN4LF wrote:
Just as I predicted propagation conditions have worsened.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: NW7US, Tomas
To: CQ_Contesting ; propagation
Cc: PropNET-Online@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 30, 2004 9:52 AM
Subject: [Propagation] NW7US Propagation Update: CQ WW SSB: 30-X-2004
Say 'hello' to Murphy.
Who would have thought that the Sun would wake up in a cranky mood, just
as the contest gets under way? Based on the 27-day rotation cycle, we
did
not expect the see a rise in flaring and geomagnetic activity on the
scale
that we are now seeing.
Just as the contest period started, active sunspot region 691 developed
new polarities which spawned three successive M-class flares (30-X-2004:
0323 UTC - M3.6, 0606 UTC - M4.5, 0909 UTC - M3.9) Then, at 1136 UTC, an
X1.3 flare errupted, peaking at 1146 UTC. A small enhancement of the
proton flux is also observed in GOES data. There are three regions that
now have the type of magnetic structure that could spawn additional C-,
M-, and X-class flares in the next 24 hours. This flare up was totally
unexpected by forecasters around the globe.
The geomagnetic activity, as measured by the planetary K index (Kp) has
remained active, mostly at level 4. This is due to the influence of the
low-latitude coronal hole, and the strengthening of the solar wind speed
and the increasing in strength of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF),
which has fluctuated southward. The same conditions will extend at least
until tomorrow.
This is putting some brakes on low frequency performance, and clipping
the
wings of the higher band signals. I am seeing contest spots from the DX
clusters on 10 meters, and quite a bit more on 15 meters, as I write this
bulletin (1350 UTC, 30-X-2004). In the last two hours, 15 meters has
been
the most active on average, as reported by
http://dx.dxers.info/activity.php - a great resource. The low bands are
not showing as high activity as might be expected - though that could be
due to the lack of reporting by contest stations.
--
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website, software, database design - http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: Washington State Army MARS, State Army MARS Director - AAA0WA :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 :
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