:Issued: 2004 Nov 22 1315 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Nov 2004, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Nov 2004 until 24 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 011
COMMENT: The earth seems to be leaving the influence zone from the coronal
hole. The solar wind speed is falling back slowly, now being 540 km/s, with a
northward oriented IMF. The K-indices already turned to quiet levels, which we
expect to remain so for the following days. The small elongated coronal hole,
situated in the southern hemisphere is expected to give slight geomagnetic
disturbances from 24th Nov onwards. This UT morning peaking between 06:30 and
07:00 UT a long duration C 1.09 flare occurred. A CME is seen at the eastern
limb in C2, first visible around 06:50 UT. This CME is probably reletad to the
long duration flare and believed to be backsided since no activity was seen on
the disk in EIT images. We expect quiet to no flaring activity for the coming 24
hours.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 040
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 101
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 019
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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