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[Propagation] Outlook For CQ WW CW Contest

To: "ABDX MF e-List" <abdx@abdx.org>,"a PropNET eGroup" <PropNET-Online@yahoogroups.com>,"a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Outlook For CQ WW CW Contest
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 11:51:00 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
During the past 48 hours GOES has been detecting a series of strong C class 
solar flares emanating from sunspot groups currently behind the eastern limb of 
the Sun. These sunspot groups including #10696 will rotate into view between 
November 23-26, 2004 just in time for the CQ WW CW contest. 

While no major geomagnetic storming is expected during the contest, M class 
solar flares and related day side radio blackouts are possible. Radio blackouts 
from (SID'S) sudden ionospheric disturbances increase absorption in the D 
layer, knocking out lower the lower HF bands first and then moving higher in 
frequency depending on the amount of absorption.

Also recurrent coronal hole #129 will be in geoeffective position (Earth 
facing) on November 27, 2004 and may produce high latitude propagation path 
minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) and active (Kp-4) conditions at mid latitudes.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm

:Issued: 2004 Nov 24 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41124
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Nov 2004, 1130UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Nov 2004 until 26 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 010

COMMENT: Yesterday (23/11) a second flare has erupted from the east limb. GOES
recorded a C6.5 flare peaking at 15:07 UT. The source region was probably (now
numbered) Catania sunspot group 78 (No NOAA numbering yet). Today it produced a
C5.9 flare peaking at 8:34 UT. As this region is turning on the disk we expect
the flaring activity to increase, with a possibility for M flares. We also keep
an eye on two large prominences present in the NE quadrant. Geomagnetic
conditions are still quiet; however some disturbances are seen in the
measurements from magnetometers at Kiruna and Tromso.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 063
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 107
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 007

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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