Hi Kelly et all,
I posted the following for the contest yesterday and is still valid today.
During the past 72 hours GOES has been detecting a series of strong C class
solar flares emanating from sunspot groups currently behind the eastern limb of
the Sun. These sunspot groups including #10696 will rotate into view between
November 23-26, 2004 just in time for the CQ WW CW contest.
While no major geomagnetic storming is expected during the contest, M class
solar flares and related day side radio blackouts are possible. Radio blackouts
from (SID'S) sudden ionospheric disturbances increase absorption in the D
layer, knocking out lower the lower HF bands first and then moving higher in
frequency depending on the amount of absorption.
Also recurrent coronal hole #129 will be in geoeffective position (Earth
facing) on November 27, 2004 and may produce high latitude propagation path
minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) and active (Kp-4) conditions at mid
latitudes.
There is also a small probability of polar cap absorption on high latitude
propagation paths.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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