Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A long duration B4
event was observed at 25/2321 UTC. Analysis of image data does not
reveal the apparent optical flare associated with this event.
Region 707 (S16E42) has grown in both white light coverage and
sunspot count and is currently a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
A new region was numbered today as Region 708 (N08E81), which is
likely the return of old Region 696 (N09,L=026). This region
produced numerous events during its last rotation before exiting the
west limb on 12 November, including two X-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speeds at ACE has shown a steady decline in the past 24 hours and is
currently around 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 111
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 019/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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