[Propagation] KN4LF Prop Comments/SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & GeoReport

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Per my forecast outlook #2005-001 issued on Friday 12/31/04 sunspot group 
number 10175 is now producing huge X class solar flares. It has also 
produced 4 large M class solar flares and 5 coronal mass ejections. 
Fortunately so far none of the CME's are totally geoeffective (Earth Facing) 
but could still cause active Kp-4 to minor Kp-5  geomagnetic storming in 2-3 
days.

This group should make for some interesting solar, space weather and 
geomagnetic conditions this first week of 2005!

73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL

-----

:Issued: 2005 Jan 01 1224 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2005, 1143UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Jan 2005 until 03 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 034

COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA 0715) again produced 2 major flares 
in
the past 24 hours. Yesterday afternoon it was responsible for an M1.2 flare.
Early in the UT day it generated an X1.7 flare, its largest event up till 
now
and surprising in view of the relatively limited size of the sunspot group. 
No
LASCO images are available so far, but EIT images clearly show that both of
these major flares were accompanied by EIT waves and coronal dimmings. Thus,
CMEs were generated, which are most likely at least partial halo events. 
Shock
fronts from these CMEs may reach the earth during the next few days, but in 
the
absence of reliable speed estimates we cannot provide estimates of the 
arrival
times.

We expect further M-class flares from Catania sunspot group 98, with a small
chance for another X-flare. The group is also likely to generate more CMEs 
with
an increasing probability of geo-effectiveness.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 037
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 011

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
31  1438  1445 1448 N04E38 M1.2       36 III/2                      98 0715 
SXI-derived location
01  0001  0031 0039 N06E34 X1.7      760 CTM/1,II/2,IV/2,III/2      98 0715 
SXI-derived location

-----
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels today.  Region
715 (N04E34) produced an M4/2n event that occurred at 30/2218Z along
with an associated Tenflare (230 sfu), a Type IV spectral radio
sweep, and a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 1378 km/s.  A related CME was observed on LASCO imagery
which appears to have a slight Earth directed component.  A more
recent M1 x-ray flare occurred at 31/1445Z from this region, and due
to insufficient data, it is uncertain whether this flare produced a
CME.  White light analysis has shown a decay in sunspot area over
the period although a small delta magnetic structure can be seen in
the southern most cluster of the penumbral spots.  The remainder of
the disk/limbs were quiescent today.  A new region was numbered
today as Region 717 (N07W56).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 715 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one (1 Jan)
of the period.  A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and the
CME's that occurred yesterday in response to the M2/Sf event and the
M4/2n event that occurred today should induce active to minor storm
conditions on days two and three (2-3 Jan).

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 099
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/012-015/020-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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