[Propagation] SIDC Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 21 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50121
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jan 2005, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Jan 2005 until 23 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 019

COMMENT: A CME is associated with the X7.1 flare of that day from the
group with Catania nr 05 (NOAA 0720), peaking at 07:01UT. The CME comes
out of the occulting disk of C2 at 06:44UT, Jan 20.The energetic flare
caused an extreme large proton event. The >100MeV curve is since
midnight again beneath the threshold. The >50MeV curve is decreasing,
while the >10MeV stays at the same level. The fact that this curve is
not decreasing can possibly be caused by the presence of the CME: the
shock front accelerates those protons again. Since the CME is ejected
mainly in the NW-direction as the responsible group is located at the
west limb, it is likely that the geomagnetic effects will be moderate.
Yesterday, Jan 20, NOAA/Sec estimated the K_p index of 4 (active
conditions), Izmiran measured a local major storm (K = 6). These
geomagnetic disturbances can be caused by the glancing blow of the CME
associated with the X1.3 flare on Jan 19, peaking at 08:22UT. For the
sake of completeness! s, we mention the coronal hole which was at the
central meridian on Jan 20. Active conditions are possible from late Jan
22 onwards.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 065
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 123
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 014

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
21  1013  1016 1019        M1.7                                     05 0720

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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