> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
> 13 APRIL, 2005
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
> (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 13 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
> Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 85, 85, 85.
> Average 90-day Solar Flux: 95.
> Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 27
> Current Boulder K-Indices: 2444 454*
> Current Planetary K-Indices: 2444 554*
> Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 15, 10, 5.
> Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 20, 15, 10.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
> Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the
> disk were stable and quiet, and the goes x-ray flux remained below b
> level for the entire interval. New region 753 (N12W06) emerged as
> a small, C-type sunspot group.
>
> Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very
> low to low.
>
> The geomagnetic field was mostly active with a few minor storm
> periods. The enhanced activity is being driven by a high speed
> stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
> mev electron flux attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
>
> Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
> expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (14 april).
> The currently enhanced activity level is expected to diminish around
> midday on the 14th as the high speed stream moves out of
> geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled levels should predominate on
> 15 april, and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16
> april.
>
> Event probabilities 14 apr-16 apr
>
> Class M 05/05/05
> Class X 01/01/01
> Proton 01/01/01
> PCAF green
>
> Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 apr-16 apr
>
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 35/15/10
> Minor storm 20/10/05
> Major-severe storm 10/05/05
>
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 25/25/20
> Minor storm 30/20/15
> Major-severe storm 25/15/10
>
>
> ** End of Daily Report **
> _______________________________________________
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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