> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
> 19 APRIL, 2005
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
> (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 19 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
> Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 80, 80, 80.
> Average 90-day Solar Flux: 92.
> Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 10
> Current Boulder K-Indices: 2341 222*
> Current Planetary K-Indices: 2241 222*
> Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 8, 12.
> Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 12, 10, 15.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
> Solar activity was very low. Region 755 (S12E49),
> which was responsible for three C-class flares on 17 april,
> continues to decay. A cme was observed on lasco imagery at 19/1226
> utc directed to the northwest. The cme most likely occurred on the
> backside and is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions
> were numbered today.
>
> Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very
> low to low.
>
> The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated
> active
> period between 0600 utc and 0900 utc on 19 april. The greater than
> 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
> today.
>
> Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
> expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
> active conditions on 20 and 21 april. On 22 april, there is a
> chance for increased active periods due to a recurrent coronal hole
> high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
>
> Event probabilities 20 apr-22 apr
>
> Class M 05/01/01
> Class X 01/01/01
> Proton 01/01/01
> PCAF green
>
> Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 apr-22 apr
>
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 20/20/25
> Minor storm 10/10/10
> Major-severe storm 01/01/05
>
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 25/25/30
> Minor storm 10/10/15
> Major-severe storm 05/01/05
>
>
> ** End of Daily Report **
> _______________________________________________
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
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KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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