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[Propagation] Fwd: GEOALERT SIDC

To: propagation <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Fwd: GEOALERT SIDC
From: "NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@hfradio.org>
Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 08:08:20 -0700
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FYI:

This says it all:

------- Forwarded message -------

:Issued: 2005 Jun 12 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU163
UGEOA 30512 50612 1234/ 9930/
11122 20122 30122
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Jun 2005 until 14 Jun  
2005
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jun 2005  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jun 2005  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jun 2005  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Another (very) long duration event took place in NOAA 0775
(Catania 78), this morning, starting around midnight. The GOES Xray flux
reached the C3 level. Possibly this event leads to active conditions on
June 15, however no LASCO images are available at the time of this
writing. Both this region and NOAA 0776 (cat 79) retain a beta-gamma
classification and more C flares ans possibly an M flare are expected.
Geomagnetic conditions are on quiet to active levels currently. Solar
wind data from ACE and CELIAS/SOHO measured a weak shock at 06:50UT this
morning. The solar wind speed jumped from 340 km/s to 380 km/s, its
current value now is 450 km/s; a jump was also seen in the density,
angle and Bt. The current Bt is about 25 nT but Bz is mostly positive.
This is probably the arrival of the shock related to the CME of June 9,
associated with the LDE originating in northern region NOAA 0775
(catania 78). The speed measured in LASCO images was 376 km/s. We expect
acti! ve geomagnetic conditions for the next few hours, after which
quiet conditions will return.


99999
UGEOI 30512 50612 1234/ 11///
10115 21080 3//// 4//// 80104 91140
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania  
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 50612 1234/ 12/06 12103
10075 2//// 3//// 471// 50020 60002 35712 00000
10078 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50360 60027 42413 19300
10079 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50500 60055 31404 16100
99999
USSPS 32404 10056 ///32 52006 37617 21403 54009 33214 20801 55036
10408 44413 56058 21506 54519 59002 16504 20801
USSPS 21305 10150 ///42 71003 37619 00101 73005 33716 21303 78021
40308 44317 79040 21105 54527 81004 15906 01204
USSPS 32404 11051 ///32 54006 34414 20802 55041 40811 54406 56050
20206 54520 59000 15104 00101
USSPS 81202 11019 ///22 79002 15306 00101 77075 20506 57531 73010
34115 31402 76045 40610 51410
USSPS 31516 12055 09444
USSPS 31405 12062 11442 75002 35712 1X902 78036 42413 55427 79050
31404 54555
UMAGF 30503 50612 1230/ 11061 1/009 21111 32222
UCOSE 84701 101// /7081 01084 03083 05081 07081 09080 11079 13079
15082 17083 19081 21084 23080

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
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# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#



-- 

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
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: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
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