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For what it is worth Sunspot group #10987 is actually old cycle 23 sunspot
group #10984 that survived one solar rotation. There is no doubt that
sunspot groups #'s 10987, 10988 and 10989 are from solar cycle 23.
Per solar imagery I expected #10987 (old #10984) to make a grand
reappearance but did not expect formation of #10988 and #10989. I've been
watching old Sol for 35 years as both a professional and amateur and have to
say that I was a bit surprised at the sudden outburst of activity.
As I mentioned before since January 1, 2008 we have seen eleven sunspot
groups. Of those eleven ten are solar cycle 23 sunspot groups, not a good
statistic for those that are hoping for a rapid rise in solar cycle 24
activity. By the way as of March 1, 2008 solar cycle 23 has now set a new
record for the longest solar cycle in recorded history.
Also anecdotal evidence continues to point toward a later and smaller peak
for solar cycle #24. I predict a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed
sunspot number of 105 in October 2012 and of course I hope that my forecast
is incorrect.
It is very good to see some high bands activity occur though. The increase
in sunspots really improved propagation conditions on 12 and 10 meters
yesterday. There was a huge F2 opening on 10 meters between the U.S. and
Oceania (ZL, H44), South America and Europe. 12 meters had an even more
widespread F2 opening. Even 6 was open but the propagation was via Sporadic
E (Es) and Auroral E.
BTW I on 12 meters I worked H44MS in the Solomon Islands using 10 watts SSB
to a simple dipole up at 35 feet and the 5T5DC Mauritania DXpedition with
100 watts. When you operate close to the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) D
layer signal absorption is lower and you ca work the worlds on a wet noodle.
73 & God Bless,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Hey, here is something I'm wondering regarding this week's 3 spots.
The consensus is that these are cycle 23 spots, because they have the "old"
polarity. But likewise, we see opposite polarity for spots above and below
the equator. But with these so close to the equator, how can we tell? In
other words, to state that the polarity shows cycle 23 spots really depends
on which side of the equator it is on, correct?
73,
Tad K7RA
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