[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2297 (S17, L=193, Cko/beta-gamma) produced a long-duration C7 flare on the west limb at 20/0057. A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery emerging from the west limb and moving at approximately 850 km/s. It is not expected to influence Earth. New flux emerged near N02W78 and was being monitored.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to very low for the next three days, with a slight chance for an M-class event (R1-minor radio blackout) from the west limb on days 1 and 2 (20-21 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a max flux of 14,900 pfu at 19/1400 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at or near ambient background values over the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels over the next three days (20-22 Mar). The greater than 10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain below (S1-minor radiation storm) alert thresholds.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the transition away from the influence of the recent coronal mass ejection into onset of influences of the southern polar coronal hole extension high speed wind stream. Solar wind speed varied from the low 500 km/s to mid 600 km/s range, ending near 550 km/s. Phi remained negative. Bz Dipped as low as about -6 nT and Bt was at or below 8 nT. Forecast: Waning negative polarity high speed stream characteristics and generally lightly agitated solar winds are expected over the next two days (20-21 Mar). A sector change to a positive orientation and onset of positive coronal hole high speed stream effects are forecast for day three (22 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from minor storm (G1) levels to unsettled levels under onset the influence of the high speed solar wind stream emanating from the southern polar coronal hole.

Forecast: The remainder of day one (20 Mar) is expected to see periods of active conditions from the high speed solar wind stream. Conditions are then expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels through day one and into day two (21 Mar). Day three (22 Mar) is forecast to see a return to minor storm (G1) conditions as a positive polarity CH is forecast to become geoeffective.

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