[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No flaring activity was observed during the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 2303 (N20E04, Cso/beta), 2305 (S08E61, Dao/beta-gamma), 2306 (S18W59, Cro/beta), and newly numbered Region 2307 (S18E29, Cro/beta). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (22-24 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels with a max flux of 19,900 pfu at 21/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels, with a chance for very high levels, over the next three days (22-24 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary crossing followed by a co-rotating interaction region preceding the expected transition into an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A small shock was observed in ACE solar wind data at 21/2023 UTC. Total field increased from 6 nT to 9 nT with a corresponding increase in solar wind speed from 585 km/s to near 650 km/s. Around 22/0130 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed followed by another increase in total field, density, and solar wind speed. Total field increased to a maximum of 13 nT at 22/0733 UTC with the Bz component deflecting southward for 1.5 hours and reaching a maximum of -9 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to a maximum of 757 km/s by 22/0834 UTC before decreasing to the upper 600 km/s range. By 22/0720 UTC, phi angle began to fluctuate between both positive and negative sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS for the next three days (22-24 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels. Major storm conditions were observed between 22/0600-0900 UTC due to activity associated with a solar sector boundary crossing and co-rotating interaction region in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with minor storm (G1) periods likely for the rest of the UTC on day one and continuing through day two (22-23 Mar) due to effects from an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS. By day three (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods are expected as CH HSS effects diminish.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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