[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf flares observed, many of which originated from Region 2305 (S08E19, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). It continued to grow in area, maintained an increased magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 25/1645 UTC. Region 2307 (S18W17, Cro/beta) also grew in area. No Earth directed CMEs were detected with available imagery and observation data.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once again at high levels reaching a maximum flux of 5,000 pfu at 25/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to remain at high levels through the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the waning influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Wind speed decreased steadily from 600 km/s to near 440 km/s. Bt was at or below 6 nT while Bz remained at or above -5 nT. Phi started the period negative and switched to positive near 2000 UTC.

Forecast: The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels as coronal hole high speed stream effects continue to wane.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels through day one (26 Mar). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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