[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2305 (S11W64, Cho/beta) remained the largest on the disk but exhibited decay in the trailer spots. An eruptive prominence was observed on the north west limb (N40W90) between 0525 - 0735 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for day one (01 Apr). An increased chance for M-class activity (R1 Minor) is forecast days two and three (02-03 Apr) as old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196) are anticipated to return. However, there is not much activity on the east limb; the probabilities may have to be nudged downward if the regions are less productive than last rotation.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (01-03 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Wind speed slightly decreased from near 445 km/s early in the period and remained steady in the 390-420 km/s range. Phi fluctuated between positive and negative early in the period but has remained positive since near 31/2000 UTC. Bt began the period at 17 nT and gradually decreased toward the end of the period to 10 nT. Bz began the period near 16 nT and reached as low as -8 nT but has remained steady near 10 nT for the latter half of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to remain benign on day one (01 Apr). Days two and three (02-03 Apr) should see a slightly more disturbed environment with the transition to the trans-equatorial, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed wind stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The southern pole connected coronal hole high speed stream seems to have decreased in its northward extent since the last rotation and did not cause a disturbance in Earths magnetic field.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity are expected for day one (01 Apr). Days two and three should see the transition to the trans-equatorial, positive polarity, CH HSS, accompanied by mainly unsettled to active conditions.

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