[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 03 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2317 (N09W51, Dsi/beta) was the sole spotted region remaining on the disk. The two largest flares of the period were a pair of C1 flares; one at 02/2202 UTC and a long duration flare that peaked at 03/0726 UTC, respectively, from the eastern limb. No Earth directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: An increasing chance for M-class activity (R1 Minor) is forecast for days two and three (04-05 Apr) as old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196) are anticipated to return. There is some brightening evident on the limb, particularly in the southeast, suggesting the return of 2297 is imminent.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels for the first two days (03-04 Apr), possibly reaching high levels on day three (05 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft showed signs of a co-rotating interaction region and the possible onset of the trans-equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed was steady near 450 km/s early, then increased twice to 575 km/s at 03/0215 UTC and later at 03/0830 UTC. Density began to rise after 03/1800 UTC and Bz began to fall, dipping as low as -11 before returning positive. Bt was at or below 14 nT. Phi oscillated between positive and negative between 02/1800 UTC and 03/0400 UTC before settling to positive.

Forecast: The transition to a trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to continue, with conditions persisting through day two (04 Apr) before beginning to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period at the end of the UT day. Minor storm conditions were also periodically observed at high latitudes.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated as the trans-equatorial positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. There is a chance for minor storm conditions, particularly in the higher latitudes, throughout the forecast period. Activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels by day three (05 Apr) as the CH HSS effects wane.

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