[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 22 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels again this period. Five M-class flares were observed as of the writing of this summary with Region 2322 (N11, L=117) producing four out of the five. The largest of these was an M4/Sf at 22/1545 UTC. Region 2325 (N06W32, Cao/beta) produced the only other M-class flare, an M1 flare at 21/2201 UTC. None of the eruptions appear to have produced Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs), based on the available coronagraph imagery. Region 2331 (S10E03, Dac/beta) continued to exhibit respectable development this period, showing separation between the leader and trailer spots, and consolidation of the leader and intermediate spots. The remaining regions were stable or decaying.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1- Minor) flares over the next three days (22-24 Apr). Additional M-class activity is anticipated based on the increased M-flare frequency. As Region 2322 completes its transit around the west limb on day 1, probabilities are likely to decrease slightly. However, the production of an M-class event by Region 2325 suggests a chance will remain over the next three days.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a peak of 1430 pfu, due to elevated solar wind speed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for day one (22 Apr), before the arrival of the CME from 18 April. Following the CME passage, the electron flux levels may take a day or two recover to near event level thresholds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over the next three days (22-24 Apr).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly stable solar wind environment. Wind speeds held steady near 570 km/s, IMF total field varied slightly between 3-8 nT, while Bz ranged between +/- 5 nT. Aside from a brief rotation into the negative (toward) sector at the beginning of the period, Phi angle remained in a positive (away) orientation for most of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly more enhanced on day one (22 Apr) due to the possible arrival of the 18 Apr CME, as well as continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). If the CME does not impact Earth, conditions should continue on a slow but steady recovery from the CH HSS. Elevated solar wind velocities and magnetic tendencies are likely to persist through day two (23 Apr). By day three (24 Apr), effects from the CH HSS and CME should begin to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels as CH HSS effects continued.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with minor (G1-Minor) storming likely for day one (22 Apr). Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, in conjunction with the on- going positive polarity CH HSS effects, are still a possibility. However, it is looking less likely that the 18 Apr CME is going to have an impact here at Earth. Isolated active levels are forecast to persist as residual CH HSS effects continue on day two (23 Apr). Unsettled to active conditions are expected to return on day three (24 Apr) as CH HSS and CME effects subside.

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