[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low this period. Multiple C1 flares were observed throughout the period. Region 2331 (S10W40, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited development in its trailer spot area while the remaining four active regions on the visible disk were generally stable.

Two disappearing filaments were observed in GONG H-Alpha imagery this period. The first, a 21 degree long filament centered near S22E19, disappeared between 25/0209-0359 UTC. The second, a 12 degree long filament centered near S20W32, disappeared between 25/0359-0557 UTC. Both disappearing filaments were non-eruptive and appeared to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (25-27 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and reached a peak flux value of 1,180 pfu at 24/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced this period but remained below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (25-27 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain enhanced over the next two days (25-26 Apr) but is expected to remain below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 385 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady near 4 nT and Bz remained mostly positive throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to remain near background levels over the next three days (25-27 Apr). A solar sector boundary change (positive to negative) is expected on day one (25 Apr) with extended periods of southward Bz possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Apr) due an anticipated solar sector boundary change (positive to negative). Quiet to unsettled field conditions at expected on days twp and three (26-27 Apr).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation