[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 30 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low; one C-class flare was observed from Region 2327 (S08, L=12) which had rotated around the southwest limb on 29 Apr. New Region 2334 (S20E24) was numbered as a simple Bxo/beta type group. Region 2333 (N22W34) decayed to plage. Another small spot group was beginning to rotate on in the southeast. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in the available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be very low over the next three days (30 Apr-02 May) as no complex regions are transiting the disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next three days (30 Apr-02 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A small impulse was observed in the mag field at the ACE spacecraft at 29/1700 UTC, after which Phi rotated from a positive through a negative orientation before abruptly returning to positive shortly after 30/0400 UTC. The phi rotation was accompanied by a rise in density. After returning to a positive sector, wind speed rose to near 350 km/s, Bt rose to 11 nT, temperature rose and density declined. Bz, which had been modestly negative (-5 nT) in the hours prior became mostly neutral. Although Phi, temperature, and density responses after 30/0400 UTC suggest a high speed stream, it is difficult to characterize the regime as such given the relatively low (350 km/s) wind speed.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue increasing through day one (30 Apr) as the anticipated positive polarity coronal hole high speed wind stream becomes established. Conditions are expected to persist through 01 Apr before the stream begins to wane by day three of the forecast period (02 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under the benign solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 30 Apr with the onset of the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels become likely on days two and three (01-02 May) as the high speed stream sets in.

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