|
Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 04 1205 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2335 (S16E30, Eac/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-class flares during the period including a C8/1f at 04/0052 UTC. The region continued to exhibit overall growth in area and spot count and showed signs of mixed magnetic polarities within its intermediate spots.
Region 2338 (N05E49, Cro/beta) contributed a C3/Sf at 04/0303 UTC. Region 2338, along with Regions 2336 (N14E06, Dro/beta) and 2337 (S16E49, Bxo/beta), all indicated slight growth during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, minor-moderate), over the next three days (04-06 May) due to flare activity from Region 2335 and the return of old Region 2322 (N12, L=119). On its last transit, old Region 2322 produced six M-class flares and was likely the source of recent back-sided activity indicated by coronagraph imagery.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels reaching a peak flux value of 194 pfu at 03/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (04-06 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds averaged around 400 km/s, IMF total field values varied from 4-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near background levels for the remainder of day one (04 May) and through the majority of day two (05 May) under a nominal solar wind regime. A minor solar wind enhancement is likely late on day two (05 May) through midday on day three (06 May) due to the onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A further solar wind enhancement is anticipated midday to late on 06 May due to the arrival of the 02 May CME.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS wane.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the remainder of day one (04 May) and through the majority of day two (05 May) under an ambient solar wind environment. Unsettled field conditions are expected late on day two (05 May) through midday on day three (06 May) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field conditions are likely beginning midday to late on day three (06 May) due to the anticipated arrival of the 02 May CME.
Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!
Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g
We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr
![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 May 04 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
|