[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 2339 (N12E73, Cao/beta) produced an M1 flare at 05/0947. It also produced a C5 flare at 04/1705 UTC before it was numbered. Another C5 was observed from Region 2338 (N04E36, Dai/beta) at 05/0403. Region 2335 (S16E18, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained the largest on the visible disk. With the exception of Region 2337 (S16E35, Bxo/beta), which decayed, the remaining regions all grew.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a continued chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, minor-moderate), over the next three days (05-07 May). Regions 2235 and 2239 are likely sources of M-class activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (05-07 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Wind speed remained in the upper-300 to lower 400 km/s range. Phi was generally positive. Bt remained at or below 6 nT and Bz was at or above -5 nT, becoming predominantly negative after 05/0400 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels initially in the period. Late on day one (05 May), a minor solar wind enhancement is anticipated through midday on day two (06 May) from the onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A further solar wind enhancement is anticipated midday to late on day two (06 May) from the arrival of the 02 May CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS subsided.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through the majority of day one (05 May) under an ambient solar wind environment. Unsettled conditions are expected late on day one (05 May) through midday on day two (06 May) from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are likely beginning midday to late on day two (06 May) from the anticipated arrival of the 02 May CME.

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